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Tag: geopolitics

  • Is the AI Arms Race the Beginning of a New Cold War?

    Is the AI Arms Race the Beginning of a New Cold War?

    How Autonomous Weapons and Military AI Could Reshape the Global Order

    Artificial intelligence is no longer limited to chatbots, recommendation systems, or virtual assistants. Around the world, governments are increasingly integrating AI into military strategy, surveillance systems, cyber operations, and autonomous weapons. What once belonged to science fiction is now becoming part of modern geopolitical reality.

    During the 20th century, global superpowers competed through nuclear weapons and industrial military power. Today, however, many analysts believe that a new kind of arms race has already begun—one centered on algorithms, data, and machine intelligence. The countries that dominate military AI may gain enormous advantages not only on the battlefield, but also in cybersecurity, information warfare, and global influence.

    This growing competition has led to an unsettling question:

    Could the AI arms race become the foundation of a new Cold War?

    1. The Global Competition for Military AI

    The United States and Algorithmic Warfare

    The United States is investing heavily in the development and military application of artificial intelligence. The U.S. Department of Defense has invested heavily in autonomous drones, AI-assisted surveillance systems, and battlefield automation technologies. Military planners increasingly view artificial intelligence as essential to maintaining strategic superiority in future conflicts.

    American defense programs are also exploring “loyal wingman” systems, in which autonomous aircraft assist human pilots during combat operations. Rather than replacing soldiers entirely, these systems are designed to enhance military speed, coordination, and decision-making. In this vision of warfare, humans and machines operate together as integrated combat units.

    At the same time, major American technology companies such as Google, Microsoft, and Palantir Technologies are increasingly connected to national security projects. This relationship between governments and private technology firms represents a major shift in how military power is developed in the digital age.

    China’s Military-Civil Fusion Strategy

    China has rapidly expanded its investment in military AI through its “Military-Civil Fusion” strategy. Under this approach, civilian technological innovation is directly connected to national defense development. China has increasingly treated artificial intelligence as both a technological priority and an important component of national and military strategy.

    Chinese researchers and defense planners are investing heavily in autonomous drones, facial recognition systems, cyber warfare capabilities, and AI-driven information operations. Unlike traditional military competition, AI warfare depends strongly on access to data, computational infrastructure, and digital surveillance networks. As a result, China’s technological expansion is closely tied to both domestic control and international influence.

    Many analysts believe that the competition between the United States and China in artificial intelligence could shape the global balance of power for decades to come.

    Russia and Autonomous Combat Systems

    Russia has also accelerated the development of autonomous military systems. Russian defense projects include robotic combat vehicles, AI-supported electronic warfare systems, and autonomous battlefield technologies designed to reduce reliance on conventional troop deployment.

    One of the most widely discussed examples is the Uran-9 robotic combat platform, which was tested in conflict environments as part of Russia’s broader military modernization efforts. Russia has also emphasized AI-enhanced cyber warfare and digital disruption strategies, viewing artificial intelligence as a way to compete asymmetrically with technologically dominant rivals.

    This demonstrates that AI competition is not simply about creating smarter weapons. It is increasingly about reshaping the very structure of military and geopolitical power.

    2. How AI Warfare Differs from Traditional Arms Races

    Speed, Automation, and Real-Time Decision Making

    Traditional warfare has always depended heavily on human decision-making. Even advanced military systems required human operators to analyze information, evaluate risks, and authorize attacks.

    AI warfare changes this dramatically.

    Artificial intelligence systems can process enormous amounts of data in real time, identify patterns, predict threats, and respond faster than humans. Autonomous systems may eventually make battlefield decisions within seconds, leaving little time for political leaders or military commanders to intervene.

    This acceleration creates a dangerous possibility: wars may unfold too quickly for humans to fully control them.

    Data as the New Strategic Resource

    In previous centuries, military power depended largely on industrial production, troop numbers, and access to physical resources. In the AI era, however, strategic advantage increasingly depends on data and computational capability.

    Countries with stronger AI ecosystems may gain advantages not only in warfare, but also in intelligence gathering, cybersecurity, and economic influence. This is why many governments now consider artificial intelligence to be as strategically important as oil, nuclear technology, or space exploration.

    Military power in the future may therefore depend less on the size of armies and more on the quality of algorithms.

    Cyber Warfare and Information Manipulation

    AI warfare extends far beyond physical battlefields. Artificial intelligence can also be used to manipulate public opinion, spread misinformation, and destabilize societies through digital influence operations.

    Deepfakes, AI-generated propaganda, and automated disinformation campaigns may become powerful geopolitical weapons. Instead of targeting only military infrastructure, future conflicts could increasingly target trust itself.

    This shift blurs the line between war, politics, media, and technology. In the AI era, information may become one of the most important battlefields of all.

    3. Autonomous Weapons and the Ethics of AI Warfare

    Drone Warfare Has Already Changed Modern Conflict

    AI-assisted drones are already transforming warfare. Conflicts including the 2020 Nagorno-Karabakh war and the Russia–Ukraine war have demonstrated the growing importance of unmanned systems in modern military operations.

    Compared to traditional military systems, drones are often cheaper, faster, and more flexible. Governments can deploy them without risking large numbers of soldiers, which may reduce the political cost of military intervention.

    However, this also creates a troubling possibility. If war becomes technologically easier and politically less costly, governments may become more willing to engage in military conflict.

    The Problem of Moral Responsibility

    One of the most difficult questions surrounding AI weapons concerns ethics and accountability.

    Artificial intelligence systems can identify targets through data analysis, but they do not possess empathy, conscience, or moral judgment. They cannot truly understand the human consequences of violence.

    This raises serious concerns:

    Can autonomous systems reliably distinguish civilians from combatants?
    Who is responsible if an AI weapon makes a deadly mistake?
    Should machines ever be allowed to make life-and-death decisions independently?

    International concern over autonomous weapons has intensified. The United Nations has increasingly addressed lethal autonomous weapon systems as an issue of international peace and security, while the International Committee of the Red Cross has called for legally binding rules that preserve meaningful human control over the use of force. Yet governments still disagree over the form and scope of such regulation, even as military applications of artificial intelligence continue to develop rapidly.

    4. Could AI Make War More Common?

    Paradoxically, AI weapons could reduce the barriers to war rather than eliminate conflict altogether.

    Because autonomous systems reduce direct human casualties for the attacking side, political leaders may feel less domestic pressure when considering military action. Remote warfare may appear cleaner, safer, and more efficient—even though its long-term consequences remain unpredictable.

    Some experts therefore fear that AI could normalize continuous low-level conflict. Instead of massive world wars between large armies, future warfare may become more decentralized, automated, and persistent.

    This possibility represents one of the greatest geopolitical risks of the AI era.

    Conclusion: Humanity at a Technological Crossroads

    Artificial intelligence is rapidly transforming the meaning of military power. AI systems may improve precision, accelerate intelligence analysis, and reduce certain forms of battlefield risk. Supporters argue that advanced technologies could potentially reduce human casualties and create more efficient defense systems.

    At the same time, however, the dangers are profound. Autonomous weapons could intensify geopolitical rivalry, destabilize cybersecurity systems, and create conflicts that unfold faster than humans can meaningfully control. If military AI becomes concentrated in the hands of a few powerful nations or corporations, global inequality and political instability may deepen even further.

    The challenge of the AI age is therefore not purely technological. It is ethical, political, and deeply human.

    Humanity must now decide whether artificial intelligence will become merely another instrument of domination—or whether international cooperation can establish meaningful limits before autonomous warfare reshapes global order beyond human control.

    The future of AI warfare may ultimately determine not only how wars are fought, but also whether humans remain genuinely responsible for them at all.

    Reader Question

    If artificial intelligence eventually becomes capable of making military decisions faster and more efficiently than humans—

    Should humanity allow machines to control warfare?

    Or must moral responsibility always remain in human hands, even in an age of autonomous weapons?

    Related Reading

    If future warfare increasingly depends on technology rather than human soldiers, could automation eventually reshape the structure of labor, power, and society itself?
    In Will Hyper-Personalization Reshape the Future of Work?, we explore how AI and automation may transform economic systems, human roles, and the future of social stability.

    References

    1. Scharre, Paul. (2018). Army of None: Autonomous Weapons and the Future of War. W. W. Norton & Company.

    Scharre examines the development of autonomous weapons and the growing role of artificial intelligence in military decision-making. Drawing on military technology, strategy, and ethics, the book is particularly useful for understanding why meaningful human control and accountability remain central questions as weapons become increasingly autonomous.

    2. Russell, Stuart. (2019). Human Compatible: Artificial Intelligence and the Problem of Control. Viking.

    Russell explores one of the central challenges of advanced artificial intelligence: how humans can retain meaningful control over increasingly capable autonomous systems. Although the book addresses AI more broadly than military technology, its analysis provides an important framework for understanding the risks of delegating consequential decisions—including life-and-death decisions—to machines.

    3. United Nations Secretary-General. (2024). Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems: Report of the Secretary-General (A/79/88). United Nations.

    This report brings together the views of governments, international organizations, the International Committee of the Red Cross, civil society, and other stakeholders on lethal autonomous weapons systems. It highlights concerns about human control, accountability, international humanitarian law, security, and the risks created when increasingly autonomous technologies are used in armed conflict. UN report on Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems

    4. United Nations General Assembly. (2024). Lethal Autonomous Weapons Systems (A/RES/79/62). United Nations.

    This General Assembly resolution reflects growing international concern about the implications of autonomous weapons for global security, humanitarian law, and human responsibility. It demonstrates that the governance of military AI is no longer only a technological or ethical debate, but an emerging issue on the international political agenda. UN General Assembly Resolution A/RES/79/62

    5. International Committee of the Red Cross. (2021). ICRC Position on Autonomous Weapon Systems. International Committee of the Red Cross.

    The ICRC argues that autonomous weapon systems require new legally binding international rules to preserve human control over the use of force. Its position is especially relevant to questions of predictability, civilian protection, legal responsibility, and whether machines should ever be permitted to select and engage human targets without sufficient human judgment. ICRC position on autonomous weapons

  • Will Quantum Computing Define the Next Global Superpower?

    Will Quantum Computing Define the Next Global Superpower?

    How Quantum Technology Could Reshape Geopolitics, Cybersecurity, and the Future Balance of Power

    Throughout history, technological revolutions have repeatedly transformed global power.

    The Industrial Revolution reshaped empires through manufacturing and energy.
    The internet revolution redefined communication, finance, and information warfare.

    Now, another technological race is rapidly emerging:

    Quantum computing.

    Unlike traditional computers, sufficiently advanced quantum computers could eventually solve certain specialized problems that are extraordinarily difficult for even the most powerful classical computers.

    Because of this potential, quantum technology is no longer viewed as merely scientific research.

    It is increasingly becoming:

    • a geopolitical asset
    • a potential challenge to existing cryptographic protection
    • an economic advantage
    • and potentially a source of strategic influence in the future

    As the United States, China, and European Union intensify their quantum ambitions, a critical question emerges:

    Could quantum computing become the defining technology of the next global power struggle?

    1. The Global Quantum Race Has Already Begun

    The United States and Corporate Quantum Leadership

    The United States remains one of the global leaders in quantum computing research.

    Major technology companies such as:

    • Google
    • IBM
    • and Microsoft

    are investing heavily in quantum technologies.

    In 2019, Google announced what it called “quantum supremacy,” reporting that its quantum processor had completed a highly specialized computational task far faster than the classical systems used for comparison at the time.

    IBM has developed increasingly advanced quantum processors and now offers cloud-based quantum computing access to researchers worldwide.

    Microsoft continues exploring topological quantum computing, focusing on building more stable and scalable quantum systems.

    In the United States, quantum development is deeply connected not only to scientific innovation—
    but also to economic and strategic dominance.

    Quantum development in the United States is also supported by a broader national strategy. Through the National Quantum Initiative, federal agencies coordinate research in quantum computing, networking, sensing, and workforce development, reflecting the growing view that quantum technology is important not only for scientific leadership but also for economic competitiveness and national security.

    China’s State-Driven Quantum Expansion

    China has rapidly emerged as a major quantum power through strong government-led investment.

    Researchers at the University of Science and Technology of China developed the photonic quantum computer “Jiuzhang,” demonstrating extraordinary computational speed in specialized tasks.

    China is also advancing quantum communication technologies.

    Its Micius satellite has been used to demonstrate quantum communication technologies, including experiments involving quantum key distribution over long distances.

    These examples show why a simple contrast between an American corporate model and a Chinese state model is incomplete. Quantum development involves relationships among governments, universities, and companies, and the balance differs across countries.

    Europe’s Quantum Strategy

    The European Union launched the Quantum Technologies Flagship in 2018. The European Commission describes it as a ten-year initiative with an expected EU budget of €1 billion, supporting research in quantum computing, communication, sensing, and simulation.

    The Flagship brings together research institutions, industry, and public funders. It is one component of Europe’s wider quantum effort, rather than a measure of all European investment.

    This distinction matters when comparing national strategies: funding for one research program should not be treated as directly comparable to another country’s total public and private investment.

    2. Could Quantum Technology Create a New Cold War?

    Cryptographic Risk Is Real—but It Has a Specific Scope

    A sufficiently capable quantum computer could threaten widely used public-key cryptographic systems, including RSA and elliptic-curve cryptography. This does not mean that quantum computers would automatically defeat every form of encryption or gain access to every protected system.

    In 2024, the U.S. National Institute of Standards and Technology finalized its first three post-quantum cryptography standards. These are designed for use on conventional computing systems; organizations do not need quantum computers to adopt them.

    One reason to prepare early is the risk of “harvest now, decrypt later”: an attacker may collect encrypted information today in the hope of decrypting it with future capabilities. Information that must remain confidential for many years deserves particular attention.

    Research Leadership Is Not Automatic Strategic Dominance

    The geopolitical consequences would depend on more than which country announces a breakthrough first. They would also depend on the capability and reliability of the system, the value of the information exposed, and whether potential targets had already migrated to suitable protection.

    Quantum communication and post-quantum cryptography should also be distinguished. The former uses quantum physical processes; the latter develops cryptographic methods intended to resist quantum attacks on conventional networks. Neither removes every security risk.

    Calling this competition a “new Cold War” can highlight rivalry, but it can also obscure important differences. Quantum development involves commercial competition, scientific collaboration, standards, and several technological fields—not a single weapon or a single finish line.

    My assessment is that preparedness matters alongside research leadership. A country that protects its infrastructure and develops the skills to use new technologies may strengthen its position without being the first to build the most powerful machine.

    3. The Risk of Quantum Inequality

    Technological Gaps Between Nations

    Quantum computing could dramatically widen global inequality.

    Countries with advanced quantum infrastructure may dominate:

    • medicine
    • climate modeling
    • finance
    • logistics
    • artificial intelligence
    • and military systems

    Meanwhile, nations lacking access to quantum technologies could become increasingly dependent on technologically dominant powers.

    This may create a new form of digital hierarchy in the global economy.

    Corporate Monopoly and Technological Concentration

    Another concern involves corporate concentration.

    Today, a small number of large technology corporations already dominate much of the digital world.

    If quantum computing becomes controlled by only a few companies, technological inequality may deepen further.

    Smaller businesses and developing nations could struggle to compete in a quantum-driven economy.

    This raises difficult questions about:

    • technological fairness
    • access to innovation
    • and the concentration of computational power

    The future quantum economy may therefore become not only a scientific issue—

    But also a political and ethical one.

    Conclusion: Quantum Leadership Is One Part of Power

    Quantum computing could become an important source of scientific and strategic advantage. It does not follow that the country with the strongest quantum processor would automatically become the next global superpower.

    The applications discussed above are possibilities to evaluate, not benefits that every quantum system can already deliver. Research achievements must become reliable and useful capabilities before they can produce substantial economic or strategic gains.

    I would judge a country’s quantum position through three questions: can it turn research into useful applications, protect important systems during the cryptographic transition, and develop the people and institutions needed to sustain progress?

    Fair access matters as well. If skills, infrastructure, and opportunities remain concentrated, the benefits may be distributed unevenly. But that outcome is not inevitable; it depends partly on choices about education, research access, competition, and cooperation.

    Quantum computing may reshape the balance of power. It is unlikely to determine that balance on its own. The more useful question is how societies can prepare for its risks and share its benefits without treating technological leadership as an entitlement to dominate others.

    Reader Question

    If quantum computing gives a few nations or corporations overwhelming technological power—

    Could the future of global politics become less about military strength,
    and more about computational dominance?

    Or should quantum technology be treated as a shared global resource rather than a strategic weapon?

    Related Reading

    If future technologies increasingly reshape global power structures, could national sovereignty itself become more flexible and unstable in the digital age?
    In Is National Sovereignty Absolute?, we explore how technological competition and global cooperation continuously challenge traditional ideas of political power and international order.

    References

    1. National Academies of Sciences, Engineering, and Medicine. (2019). Quantum Computing: Progress and Prospects. Washington, DC: The National Academies Press.

    This authoritative report examines the scientific foundations, technological challenges, and potential applications of quantum computing. It provides an important framework for understanding both the transformative possibilities of quantum technology and the substantial technical barriers that must still be overcome before large-scale quantum computers become practical.
    National Academies — Quantum Computing: Progress and Prospects

    2. National Quantum Initiative. (n.d.). The National Quantum Initiative. United States Government. Accessed October 9, 2026.

    The National Quantum Initiative coordinates U.S. federal efforts in quantum information science and technology, including research, infrastructure, workforce development, and cooperation between government, universities, and industry. It demonstrates how quantum technology has become connected not only to scientific leadership but also to economic competitiveness and national security.
    U.S. National Quantum Initiative

    3. National Institute of Standards and Technology. (2024). Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards: FIPS 203, FIPS 204, and FIPS 205. U.S. Department of Commerce.

    In 2024, NIST finalized its first three post-quantum cryptography standards to protect digital information against attacks from future quantum computers. These standards show that the cybersecurity implications of quantum computing are no longer merely theoretical: governments and organizations are already preparing existing digital infrastructure for a post-quantum security environment.
    NIST — Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards

    4. National Institute of Standards and Technology. (2024). Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards (NIST IR 8547 Initial Public Draft). U.S. Department of Commerce.

    This draft report addresses the transition from quantum-vulnerable cryptographic systems to post-quantum standards. It is particularly relevant to the geopolitical dimension of quantum computing because the ability of governments, financial institutions, and critical infrastructure to protect information during this transition may become an important component of national security and technological resilience.
    NIST — Transition to Post-Quantum Cryptography Standards

    5. European Commission. (n.d.). Quantum Technologies Flagship. European Commission. Accessed October 9, 2026.

    The European Quantum Technologies Flagship is a long-term research and innovation initiative designed to strengthen Europe’s capabilities in quantum computing, communication, simulation, and sensing. The program illustrates how quantum technology has become a strategic priority not only for individual companies but also for governments and regional institutions seeking technological sovereignty and competitiveness in the emerging quantum economy.
    European Commission — Quantum Technologies Flagship

  • Why Do We Still Choose War?

    Why Do We Still Choose War?

    Rational Strategy, Fear, and the Paradox of Violence

    Across the world, conflicts continue—
    in regions like Ukraine and the Middle East,
    war remains a recurring reality.

    Lives are lost.
    Economies collapse.

    And yet, despite the cost,
    nations still choose war.

    This raises a difficult question:

    In an age of reason and progress,
    why does violence remain a rational option?

    This article focuses mainly on war between states. Civil wars and other forms of organized violence can involve additional dynamics that require separate examination.

    Here, “rational” means that decision-makers may see force as a way to pursue their goals under uncertainty. It does not mean that war is morally justified, legally permissible, or beneficial to the people who suffer its consequences. A leader’s calculation can also be based on false information or unrealistic expectations.

    1. Is War Irrational—or Strategic?

    War is often seen as the result of anger or hatred.

    But from the perspective of international politics,
    war is frequently a calculated decision.

    States consider war for strategic reasons:

    • Securing national security
    • Accessing resources
    • Expanding influence
    • Stabilizing domestic politics

    In this sense, war is not always a breakdown of reason—
    but sometimes an extension of it.

    What appears irrational on the surface
    may, under certain conditions, be seen as a rational strategy.

    But strategic goals alone do not explain why war occurs. If fighting is costly, why can opponents not reach an agreement that avoids those costs?

    Political scientist James Fearon identifies two important obstacles. First, governments may possess private information about their capabilities or willingness to fight and have incentives to exaggerate them. Negotiations can fail when neither side can reliably assess the other.

    Second, a settlement may lack credible guarantees. Even if both sides prefer an agreement today, one may fear that the other will become stronger and abandon its promises tomorrow.

    These problems help explain how costly wars can emerge from strategic interaction. They do not imply that every war is carefully calculated or that negotiation will always succeed.

    2. The Role of Fear: The Security Dilemma

    International relations are shaped by uncertainty.

    One state’s defensive action—
    such as military expansion—
    can be interpreted by others as a threat.

    This creates what is known as the security dilemma.

    Even without aggressive intentions,
    states may escalate tensions out of fear.

    In such situations, mistrust can contribute to escalation even when neither side initially seeks war. However, the security dilemma is not an explanation for every conflict. Some leaders pursue expansion or coercion deliberately, and describing mutual fear should not erase differences in conduct or responsibility.

    The practical challenge is to distinguish defensive precautions from preparations for attack. Communication, verification, and credible limits on military activities can sometimes reduce uncertainty, although they cannot guarantee peace.

    3. War as a Tool of Domestic Politics

    Domestic politics can shape decisions about external conflict. Leaders may hope that confrontation will rally supporters, redirect attention from political failures, or strengthen their position against rivals.

    This possibility is often discussed as diversionary conflict. However, domestic trouble does not automatically produce war. Research finds that the relationship depends on political institutions, the type of dispute, and the risks leaders face.

    An external crisis may generate support, but military failure, casualties, or rising costs can also weaken a government. Evidence that a leader benefited politically from a conflict is not, by itself, proof that the conflict was initiated for that purpose.

    A careful explanation must therefore distinguish the interests of leaders from those of the wider population—and examine evidence of motives rather than assuming them.

    4. Philosophical Perspectives on Violence

    Thomas Hobbes: Insecurity Without a Common Authority

    Hobbes’s account of the state of nature emphasizes insecurity where no common authority can provide reliable protection. His conception of war includes an enduring readiness for conflict, not only actual fighting.

    Applied cautiously to relations between states, this perspective helps explain why uncertainty and self-protection matter. It does not establish that people are always violent or that the absence of a world government makes every war inevitable.

    Carl von Clausewitz: War as an Instrument of Policy

    Clausewitz connects war to political purposes. This means that military action must be understood in relation to the objectives it is supposed to serve.

    It does not mean that war is simply another name for diplomacy, or that using force is necessarily wise. Violence, uncertainty, chance, and resistance can disrupt the plans of those who initiate it. A political objective does not guarantee that war will achieve it at an acceptable cost.

    Hannah Arendt: Power Is Not the Same as Violence

    Arendt distinguishes power, which depends on people acting together, from violence, which relies on instruments of coercion. The ability to compel obedience should not be confused with durable political support.

    Her distinction helps us question whether a display of force reflects secure authority or difficulty sustaining it. It is a lens for examining political violence, not a universal explanation of why every war begins.

    A Citizenship Perspective: Examining the Case for Force

    From a citizenship education perspective, understanding war requires more than identifying national interests. Citizens also need to examine how leaders define threats, present evidence, and justify the use of force.

    Useful questions include: What is the stated objective? What evidence supports the threat assessment? Which alternatives have been considered? Who is likely to bear the costs? What would count as success, and how could the conflict end?

    These questions should not turn civilians on opposing sides into abstractions. Recognizing their vulnerability can coexist with careful judgments about aggression, defense, and responsibility.

    Public scrutiny cannot prevent every war. But it can challenge exaggerated certainty, expose weak arguments, and make decisions about force more accountable.

    Conclusion: Choice—or Structure?

    War can emerge from strategic ambition, fear, failed bargaining, domestic incentives, and decisions made under uncertainty. No single explanation fits every conflict, and the importance of each factor must be assessed in context.

    These pressures constrain choices, but they do not eliminate agency or responsibility. Explaining why leaders considered war attractive is different from concluding that they had no alternative.

    Preventing war requires attention to both incentives and institutions: reducing dangerous uncertainty, making agreements more credible, scrutinizing claims about threats, and sustaining channels for negotiation.

    The value of understanding war is not to make it appear normal or unavoidable. It is to identify where decisions, institutions, and public accountability might interrupt the path toward violence.

    Reader Question

    When leaders argue that military action is necessary, what evidence should citizens expect—and which alternatives should be examined before that claim is accepted?

    How can we recognize genuine security threats while still questioning whether the proposed use of force will achieve its stated goals?

    Related Reading

    The difficulty of preventing war raises questions about how independent states can build credible rules and commitments. In Is National Sovereignty Absolute? The Biggest Barrier to a World Government, we examine the possibilities and limits of shared authority—and why international cooperation requires accountability as well as agreement.

    Military technology can also change the conditions under which leaders calculate the risks of conflict. In Is the AI Arms Race the Beginning of a New Cold War?, we explore how automation, accelerated decision-making, and competition over military AI may complicate human control and create new pressures for international cooperation.

    References

    1. Fearon, J. D. (1995). “Rationalist Explanations for War.” International Organization, 49(3), 379–414.

    Fearon asks why states engage in costly wars when negotiated agreements might leave both sides better off. His analysis examines private information, incentives to misrepresent capabilities or resolve, and difficulties making credible commitments. It provides the foundation for the article’s distinction between identifying strategic goals and explaining why bargaining fails.

    Stanford University — Rationalist Explanations for War

    2. Jervis, R. (1978). “Cooperation under the Security Dilemma.” World Politics, 30(2), 167–214.

    Jervis examines how measures taken to improve one state’s security can increase the insecurity of others. He also considers conditions that make cooperation more feasible, including whether defensive preparations can be distinguished from offensive ones. The article supports an explanation of escalation through uncertainty without treating conflict as inevitable.

    Cambridge University Press — Cooperation under the Security Dilemma

    3. Tir, J. (2010). “Territorial Diversion: Diversionary Theory of War and Territorial Conflict.” The Journal of Politics, 72(2), 413–425.

    Tir investigates whether politically vulnerable leaders are more likely to initiate territorial confrontations. The study finds support for a specific territorial mechanism while addressing the difficulty of establishing broad claims about diversionary conflict. It helps explain why domestic political incentives must be examined in context rather than assumed to cause war automatically.

    The Journal of Politics — Territorial Diversion

    4. Hobbes, T. (1651). Leviathan. Chapter XIII.

    Hobbes describes insecurity where no common authority can provide reliable protection. His account of war includes a continuing disposition toward conflict, not only actual battle. This provides a philosophical starting point for examining fear and uncertainty, while requiring caution when applied to relations between modern states.

    Iowa State University — Leviathan, Chapters XIII–XV

    5. Clausewitz, C. von. (1832). On War. Book I, Chapter 1.

    Clausewitz connects war with political purposes while also recognizing the roles of violence, uncertainty, and chance. His account supports the article’s discussion of war as a political instrument without implying that military action is necessarily wise, successful, or equivalent to diplomacy.

    Clausewitz Studies — On War, Book I, Chapter 1 (1873 English Translation)

    6. Arendt, H. (1969). “A Special Supplement: Reflections on Violence.” The New York Review of Books, February 27.

    Arendt distinguishes power grounded in collective action from violence exercised through coercive instruments. Her essay provides a basis for questioning whether the ability to compel obedience should be equated with lasting political support. It informs the article’s philosophical discussion without offering a single explanation for all wars.

    The New York Review of Books — Reflections on Violence